Monday, August 25, 2025

Short Squeeze Sends Markets Flying - But There's a Catch

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Monday Takeaways: Jackson Hole's Short Covering Frenzy Hides Inflation Reality

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Shah Gilani

Shah Gilani
Chief Investment Strategist

Friday's Jackson Hole rally surprised a lot of people...

But here's what really happened: It wasn't Powell's dovish speech that sent markets soaring...

It was panicked short covering.

Markets had been falling all week, with heavy bets that Powell would stay hawkish. When he surprised everyone with rate cut signals, those shorts had to cover fast.

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The problem? The fundamentals don't support September cuts...

  • Walmart and Target report tariff impacts hitting them "every week"
  • Inflation appears to be rising, not falling
  • The labor market shows no signs of serious weakness
  • Retailers are preparing to pass higher costs to consumers.

Meanwhile, this week brings the ultimate test - Nvidia earnings on Wednesday.

With the chip giant representing 8% of S&P 500 weight and 40% of its sales going to just five mega-cap customers, one disappointing number could unravel everything.

I'll break down why Friday's surge was more about covering bets than economic reality, what Nvidia must deliver to keep this rally alive, and why the "heavy data week" ahead could turn Powell's dovish dream into a market nightmare.

Click here or on the image below to see why the kettle is about to boil.

Cheers,

Shah

Video - Monday Takeaways
 
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