Monday, July 28, 2025

Short squeeze setup in Goldman's "bubble" market

Trade of the Day Wake-Up Watchlist

"Sometimes you gotta lean INTO the chaos instead of running from it."

Nate Bear, Lead Technical Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance

Nate Bear

You know what?

Goldman's screaming about speculative trading hitting record highs - highest since the dot-com and pandemic bubbles - and you know what I'm thinking?

They're probably right. But while everyone's either panicking about another bubble or chasing the obvious momentum plays, I'm sitting here watching CVNA make its move back to the scene of the crime.

And I'm like, okay, this is exactly the kind of setup that works in this environment.

And with earnings this week, this is a stock you should have on your radar.

What's Got My Attention

 

So CVNA just triggered a fresh daily squeeze with stacked EMAs on both the daily and weekly charts.

When I see that technical momentum building while we're in full speculative mode, I think that's when you get the really explosive moves, you know?

But let me break down why this actually matters.

When you see stacked EMAs - 8, 13, 21, 34 all lined up in ascending order - that's telling you institutional money is systematically accumulating at higher prices.

Each moving average represents a different timeframe of buyers, and when they're all stacked, it means every group of participants is profitable and positioned for continuation.

That's not retail doing that.

That's smart money building a foundation.

Here's what gets me excited - this thing went from $22 to $376 back in the 2020-2021 run, then got absolutely smoked down to $9 in February 2023.

Now it's clawing its way back toward those all-time highs, trading around $330.

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The Short Float Dynamic

But here's the kicker - we've still got 10.3% short float sitting on this thing. In Goldman's "speculative trading" market with call options surging to 2021 levels? That short interest becomes rocket fuel when momentum really kicks in.

Let me explain why this matters right now.

In normal markets, 10% short interest is manageable. But in speculative environments like Goldman's describing, you get forced covering when stocks break key resistance levels.

Here's what happens: CVNA breaks above $340-350, stops get triggered, shorts start covering into momentum, retail sees the breakout and piles in, and you get that feedback loop that creates explosive moves.

That 10.3% short float isn't just a number - it's potential energy waiting to convert when the technical setup triggers.

And in this market environment?

When retail's favorite basket is up 50% since April? That conversion happens fast and violent.

The Institutional vs Retail Split

And here's what kills me - this is one of those stocks the pros absolutely hate.

EPS down 46% year-over-year, but the stock's still up over 60% this year. That's pure momentum and retail conviction driving price action while institutional guys sit on the sidelines shaking their heads.

But I think that disconnect is exactly why CVNA works here.

The stacked EMAs tell me some smart money is quietly positioning despite the headline numbers.

They're not buying the story - they're buying the setup. Meanwhile, retail loves this comeback narrative. From $9 to $330 - that's the kind of recovery story that creates emotional attachment.

And in Goldman's speculative environment, emotional attachment translates to sustained buying pressure.

Why This Setup Works Now

Here's what I've learned about trading in speculative environments - you can't fight the tape with fundamentals.

When you've got stacked EMAs showing systematic accumulation, short float providing squeeze fuel, retail narrative appeal, a fresh daily squeeze, and technical breakout setup approaching previous cycle highs - that's when you get the explosive moves that define speculative cycles.

This is the kind of setup I've been finding while everyone else either panics about bubble conditions or waits for perfect fundamentals that never come in momentum markets.

Your Action Plan

I'm watching CVNA closely here. And while I have no trade yet, there are two ways to look at it.

Play for a momentum move higher and get out before its earnings on Wednesday.

Or wait after its earnings and trade this strategy.

Either way, I'll be using short-dated options if I do decide to play it.

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