Friday, January 17, 2025

A Massive Value Gap

Total Wealth

BROUGHT TO YOU BY MANWARD PRESS

This Hated Market Is Trading at a Huge Discount

Shah Gilani

Shah Gilani
Chief Investment Strategist

Thirteen.

That's the current P/E ratio of many blue-chip Chinese stocks.

Now here's another number: 30.

That's what you'll pay for similar companies in India.

And these numbers are telling us something important about where smart money should be heading in 2025.

Let me show you why this valuation gap is an important investment signal this year.

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Go Global

American exceptionalism aside... there's always a case to be made for global diversification.

Yes, investing in the U.S. markets has incredibly profitable. But global diversification gives you a few key advantages...

  • You get exposure to different economic cycles (when the U.S. sneezes, not everyone catches a cold)...
  • You can tap into faster-growing economies with young populations...
  • You might catch some opportunities that are way undervalued compared to U.S. stocks...
  • And if the dollar weakens, your international investments could get an extra boost.

And as I explained last week... we have a very concentrated, top-heavy market thanks to the Magnificent Seven.

There are plenty of global options... but most of them aren't that exciting. Europe's feeling a bit yesterday's news, South America's still doing its fiscal chaos dance, and Japan's about to deal with its first rate hike headache in forever.

That leaves us with the two Asian giants: India and China.

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Emerging India

India showed resilience in 2024. It had strong domestic consumption, ongoing reforms, and infrastructure spending.

The stock market was on fire, with the Sensex and the Nifty 50 shooting up 12% to 15%.

What drove it? The perfect combination of enthusiastic local investors diving into the market while foreign money poured in from abroad.

Key sectors - IT services, financials, and consumer goods - saw strong growth as India capitalized on its position as a global outsourcing hub.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows remained strong in 2024 as multinational companies sought to diversify away from China and invest in India's emerging consumer and industrial markets.

But India faces challenges. High interest rates have started to bite into corporate profitability. While India's demographics are promising, slow progress in regulatory reforms and bureaucratic inefficiencies - a seemingly endless morass of local chokepoints and systemic graft - have too often dampened the pace of business growth.

That said, listed companies are chased by investors believing public scrutiny makes them safe.

Valuations are getting pricey, especially in tech and finance. When that happens, corrections are not far behind.

In fact, the Indian stock market rally seemed to plateau toward the end of 2024, thanks to profit-taking.

Oversold China

China started 2024 looking like it was stuck in the mud. Three major challenges weighed it down...

  • The lingering effects of the government's COVID policy decisions
  • A dreadful property market
  • And persistent geopolitical tensions with the West.

But then... things started to turn around in the second half.

The Chinese government shifted to aggressive stimulus measures, cutting rates, offering subsidies, and opening its capital markets to foreign investors.

Although exports struggled due to global economic uncertainty, sectors like green energy, electric vehicles and advanced manufacturing rebounded. The property market, while a long way from being fully stabilized, saw improvement as confidence returned, driven by targeted government interventions.

Chinese companies also benefited from expanded Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, strengthening economic ties with emerging markets.

The stock market managed a decent 6% to 8% gain, lagging India, but outperforming expectations.

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The Price Is Right

China's better positioned in 2025 for a few reasons...

While the India's stock market boasts a P/E multiple near 30, China's P/E hovers in the low teens. That makes China a compelling bargain.

The Chinese government has shown it is willing to do whatever it takes to reignite growth, including loosening monetary policy, propping up the property sector, and incentivizing foreign investment.

India, on the other hand, faces a potential slowdown in policy-driven growth due to fiscal constraints and an already-high inflation rate.

China's not just making stuff anymore - it's leading the pack in multiple high-growth areas.

China is a global leader in green energy, EVs, and advanced manufacturing - all areas with strong growth potential in 2025. While India has strength in IT and pharmaceuticals, it doesn't have the same depth in high-growth industrial sectors.

With its vast manufacturing ecosystem and renewed ties with emerging markets via the BRI, China is better positioned to capture global demand recovery in 2025. India, while growing as a manufacturing hub, lacks the scale and infrastructure to compete on a similar level.

Historically, Chinese markets have bounced back aggressively from lows. And with valuations at multiyear lows... and government support kicking in... there's big potential upside in Chinese equities.

But there's an even bigger story developing here. One that connects directly to both China's manufacturing prowess and the worldwide race for AI dominance.

In fact, just before his passing, legendary investor Charlie Munger made one final investment that perfectly captures this convergence of Asian manufacturing excellence and next-generation AI technology.

And while Wall Street remains fixated on overvalued AI stocks trading at sky-high multiples like we just saw with Indian markets, this under-the-radar company is available at a fraction of the price.

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Cheers,

Shah

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