Guideposts: Irrational Exuberance for Not Quite Emerging Technologies | | by George Gilder and Robert Castellano
01/27/2025 | | | SPONSORED CONTENT Have You Seen This $11 Trillion "Tech Strip?" While many folks today are wondering what to do with their money…a revolutionary "sheet" of new technology has quietly sparked an $11 trillion tech revolution.
Investors who get in FIRST have a rare chance to position themselves in front of a tsunami of profits.
Click here to see how anyone can profit fast. | | | In the wake of the U.S. election, the tech market is abuzz.
The hypsters are hyperventilating. SoftBank is headed for a Stargate. One more time we are promised machines that really think (really, truly this time).
The mystagogy of "quantum computing" bedazzles as ever. And unwary investors are impaled on the spikes.
To the Stars
On Jan. 21, President Trump announced the Stargate project, a joint venture between OpenAI, SoftBank, Oracle, and MGX, aiming to invest up to $500 billion in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure across the United States over the next four years. Planned is an initial $100 billion splurge on data centers, starting in Texas, with the goal of creating some 100,000 jobs. Why massive, earth-bound, heavy-metal data centers should make us contemplate the stars was not clarified.
More to the point, government "job creation" rarely translates into the actual skills and the real intelligence needed to man something as complex as a new data center—we're talking nanometers of precision here—even if anyone today knew how to build the next generation.
Impugning the financial hype was none other than Elon Musk, who declared, "They actually don't have the money." With SoftBank's guarantee falling well short of the announced goals, industry observers question the project's feasibility on many grounds. | | Discover the One Company Leading America's Hypersonic Missile Efforts Today Hypersonic missiles can travel at 20 times the speed of sound … making them essentially invisible to even the best available radar technology.
Russia, China, and Iran have these terrifying munitions in their arsenals, and Russia and Iran have already launched hypersonic missiles at Ukraine and Israel.
However, there's a nation missing from the list of hypersonic capable militaries… it's us. The gut-churning reality of warfare today is that America is way, way behind when it comes to hypersonic missile technology, and we're desperate to catch up.
I've discovered one company that is poised and ready to take a big chunk of this spend.
Go here now to watch an exclusive presentation about this company. | | | Nonetheless, in response to Stargate, Arm Holdings plc (ARM), a global chip design and software company majority owned by SoftBank, saw a juicy jolt in its stock price, up to nearly $180 on Jan. 22, a 15.39% increase from the previous close. We love ARM and made a bunch of money holding for a few months last year. But with a price/earnings (PE) ratio more than twice Nvidia's and a Price-to-Sales ratio 150% as high, we're passing the popcorn.
| Table 1: Market Reaction to Stargate Announcement | | Company | Stock Price (USD) | Change (%) | Date | | Arm Holdings plc (ARM) | 179.08 | +15.39 | January 22, 2025 |
AGI: OpenAI's Denials vs. Investor Hype
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to putative AI systems capable of understanding, learning, and applying knowledge across a broad range of tasks, matching or surpassing human cognitive abilities, whatever that means this week. Recent rumors suggested that OpenAI has achieved the goal. Tech indexes jumped. Then OpenAI's CEO, Sam Altman, intervened saying that while the company is making progress, the realization of AGI is not imminent, and he urged the public to "reduce expectations 100 times."
Buyers of the rumor were spiked by sellers of the reality.
| Table 2: Market Fluctuations Around AGI Rumors | | Date | Event | Tech Index Change (%) | | January 19 | AGI rumors gain traction | +5% | | January 20 | Altman denies AGI development | -3% | | | Don't get shocked this month Tired of reacting to market changes when it's already too late?
Tired of reading about epic gains after the trend has clearly reached the moon?
With our dedication to ever-increasing accuracy, I want to show you something interesting today, because then you'll be more "trend aware".
See Next-Level Stock Picks to Kickstart 2025. | | | Quantum Hype: To Infinity and Beyond!
"Quantum computing" is an academic field that leverages the principles of quantum mechanics to process information in ways that classical computers cannot, possibly solving in seconds problems now unsolvable in centuries.
In late 2024, theoretical announcements from major tech companies, such as Google's "Willow" team, provoked a surge in the stock prices of quantum computing firms. Since all current computers can be described as quantum devices in one way or another (George wrote a book on "Quantum Computing" in 1990), anyone in the industry is free to make quantum claims and "qubits" as investors are to believe them.
Alas, dashing these hopes during the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in January 2025 was Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who happens to run one of the world's most heralded "quantum computing" projects. Stating that "very useful" quantum computers are still 15 to 30 years away, he plunged the field into never-never land.
The shares of IonQ Inc. (IONQ), Rigetti Computing Inc. (RGTI), and D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS), all of which had headed heavenward on the Google announcement, swiftly felt the tug of Huang's gravitas. As we write, each is down from 40% to 16% from their Googley highs.
Robert had discussed this topic at length in his January 6, 2025, Substack article entitled Quantum Computing Stocks: Breakthrough Opportunity or Speculative Bubble?
Investor Takeaway: Tempering Expectations
While technological advances in AI and quantum computing have transformative potential, investors must be wary of the disconnect between speculative enthusiasm and the realities of innovation timelines. Our view is that, though AI will never think, the market is actually underestimating the wealth that will be created by the AI we already have and meanwhile expecting more from those elusive qubits than they will ever deliver.
Innovation will drive long-term growth, but as always the breakthroughs will be unexpected. That's one of Gilder's Laws: if the government is hyping it today, it is probably as obsolete as a windmill.
Sincerely,
George Gilder, Richard Vigilante, Steve Waite, John Schroeter, and Robert Castellano
Editors, Gilder's Guideposts, Technology Report, Technology Report Pro, Moonshots, and Private Reserve | | About George Gilder:
 George Gilder is the most knowledgeable man in America when it comes to the future of technology and its impact on our lives. He’s an established investor, bestselling author, and economist with an uncanny ability to foresee how new breakthroughs will play out, years in advance. George and his team are the editors of Gilder Technology Report, Gilder Technology Report Pro, Moonshots and Private Reserve. | | | | | |
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