Don't forget to grab your free bonus report here if you haven't done so already! It's early 2020 and the world is on pause. Outside, the streets are silent, and storefronts are dark. Families are at home; isolated despite being locked in together. Work commutes are a thing of the past and have instead been replaced by short walks to the living room or basement where makeshift offices have been hastily assembled. School bells are silent, and classrooms are empty as students and teachers alike find their worlds narrowed to the confines of their computers and smartphones. And so, in this new reality where the office and the home are one and the same, a four-letter word has entered the global conversation... Zoom. From Niche App to Household Name When the pandemic hit, Zoom was just another app. Most who downloaded it did so out of necessity. A temporary solution for those who found themselves, for the first time, setting up offices in spare spaces around the home. In kitchens and spare bedrooms, people were creating profiles, testing the "mute" button, fumbling with their lighting, and adjusting camera angles. All the while thinking it was just until they lifted the shutdown. Only it wasn't lifted. And life had to find a way. Editorial Mention: There's still time to claim your free bonus report. Click here to grab it now. As reality sank in, we hustled to adapt. In a matter of weeks, Zoom went from a niche app to the go-to global platform for morning meetings, online classrooms, virtual happy hours, family reunions, and even weddings. It became our lifeline to the outside world. Zoom's user base skyrocketed, going from 10 million daily users at the start of 2020 to over 300 million by April. Wall Street took notice, and Zoom's stock soared. Investors were hooked, convinced that Zoom was redefining the way the world would work forever. Analysts called it a tech titan. It was the future of office collaboration and communication, and the company's valuation reached dizzying heights. By mid-2020, Zoom was the undisputed darling of the pandemic economy, a seemingly untouchable giant. It was so pervasive that a robust imagination might surmise the whole thing was almost orchestrated. But then, cracks started to show. A Return to the "New Normal" As 2021 unfolded, new competitors emerged. Microsoft Teams was a clunky secondary option until it rolled out seamless integrations with Office 365. Google Meet — already embedded in millions of Gmail accounts — became a go-to for schools and workplaces looking for alternatives. And to add insult to injury, security concerns about Zoom began making headlines. Stories about hackers hijacking meetings and Zoom-bombing prompted security experts to caution users and warn about vulnerabilities. By late 2021, Zoom's stock price had plunged, growth was stalled, and investors who were once so certain Zoom would usher in a new era of remote office work began to question how it could possibly sustain its success. I remember watching Zoom's meteoric rise and knowing what was coming. While most people saw a company poised for the future — an indispensable digital bridge — I saw the cracks forming beneath its success. Being an active angel investor, I knew the signs. I'd seen it happen before... companies growing too big, too fast, and way overvalued that couldn't withstand the pressure of rapid, unchecked growth. I knew Zoom Video would be toxic when it's EV/Sales ratio surpassed 50x. It eventually climbed as high as 120x, which is almost unheard of for a company with over a $1 billion valuation, let alone a $150 billion company. It was unlikely it would ever grow into that valuation. Plus, having followed technology stocks for many cycles, I knew Wall Street would punish Zoom the first time it missed its growth targets. And I knew that day was coming. Microsoft Teams had a video meeting feature comparable to Zoom. And it was part of the Microsoft Office Suite that most of corporate America uses. In other words, they wouldn't have to pay more to use Teams. In addition, Google and Facebook both released video chat features. Apple has its Facetime application. Zoom was competing against the largest companies in the world. It was only a matter of time until prices came crashing down. In 2020, I issued my warning: "Zoom is potentially the most toxic tech stock anyone could own." I predicted it could fall as much as 88%. But by the middle of 2020, when everyone depended on Zoom for almost every aspect outside communication, this prediction sounded crazy. And yet, sure enough, Zoom spiraled from a high of $588 all the way down to $61 within months. An 87% collapse that almost no one saw coming. It's easy to understand how people got caught off guard by Zoom's collapse. But some casualties are nearly impossible to spot — until it's too late. And even though the bigger they are, the harder they fall, they all have one thing in common. I'll talk more about that tomorrow... and how you can spot it long before the collapse. Stay tuned. We have so much to look forward to. Jeff Brown Founder & CEO, Brownstone Research P.S. Don't forget to mark your calendar for THIS Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET here. I recommend showing up a few minutes early to make sure you can log on. P.P.S. Even though there's a massive AI crash coming, there's one stock I believe will survive it all. |
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