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Dear Fellow Investor,
Back-to-School Shopping Season Already Started – Here’s How to Profit
Summer may have just begun, but retailers and investors alike are already looking ahead to one of the most important sales events of the year: back-to-school season.
Traditionally, back-to-school shopping kicks into gear in August. But this year, families are buying earlier than ever — and that’s creating an unexpected window of opportunity for investors.
According to CBS News, two-thirds of American families have already started shopping for clothes, supplies, and tech ahead of the school year. That represents a 55% increase in early purchases compared to last year. The reason? Consumers are racing to get ahead of potential tariffs, inflationary pressures, and supply chain challenges.
That early demand could be a boon for big-box retailers and e-commerce platforms that dominate this shopping season. Historically, stocks tied to consumer staples and retail see a healthy uptick during these months, and 2025 looks no different. For investors, that means positioning now could pay off in the weeks ahead.
Here are some of the best ways to trade the back-to-school trend this year.
Company: Walmart (SYM: WMT)
Walmart continues to show why it’s one of the most reliable investments on the market.
Over the last year, WMT shares are up about 40%, and over the last five years, they’ve gained about 145%. The company has weathered inflationary storms better than most competitors thanks to its scale, cost-cutting, and consumer loyalty.
While some shoppers are pulling back on discretionary spending, back-to-school essentials are not discretionary purchases. Parents prioritize clothing, supplies, and electronics, regardless of the economy. That gives Walmart a reliable seasonal boost.
Looking at recent history, Walmart tends to see strong moves during the back-to-school season:
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In 2024, shares surged from an August low of $70 to a high of $104.76.
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In 2023, the stock climbed from $52 to $55.21.
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In 2022, it rose from about $42 to just over $49.
This year, analysts expect similar seasonal momentum, especially as Walmart captures market share from higher-priced competitors. With school spending already ramping up early, WMT could be one of the strongest seasonal plays on the board.
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Company: Target (SYM: TGT)
Target has had its share of challenges in recent years — including weaker consumer spending and inventory struggles. However, the retailer has a history of turning higher around the back-to-school season, and early signs suggest 2025 could follow the same pattern.
The stock is already starting to pivot higher, and if history repeats itself, investors could see notable gains:
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In 2024, TGT ran from an August low of about $141 to $157.52.
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In 2023, it initially dipped from $127 before exploding to $170.62.
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In 2022, shares bounced from $150 to $162 during the same period.
Target is also benefiting from its focus on affordable fashion, school supplies, and its strong e-commerce business. Parents looking for a one-stop shop often turn to Target for both essentials and style. With consumers beginning their shopping earlier than expected, TGT could see a seasonal bounce similar to years past.
ETF: ProShares Online Retail ETF (SYM: ONLN)
If you’d prefer to diversify across multiple back-to-school winners instead of picking individual stocks, the ProShares Online Retail ETF (SYM: ONLN) could be a smart option.
E-commerce continues to dominate consumer habits, with online shopping now one of the most favored ways to shop for school supplies and clothing. ONLN provides direct exposure to that trend with 19 holdings, including:
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Amazon (SYM: AMZN)
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eBay (SYM: EBAY)
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Coupang (SYM: CPNG)
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Wayfair (SYM: W)
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Etsy (SYM: ETSY)
The ETF has an expense ratio of 0.58% and pays a quarterly dividend. Recently, it distributed just over seven cents per share on July 1, following a five-cent payout in April. The next dividend should arrive in September — perfectly timed with peak back-to-school shopping.
As parents continue to shift purchases online, ONLN could see significant upside. Its mix of large-cap leaders and high-growth online retailers makes it a compelling seasonal play.
Bonus Trade Idea: Bitcoin-Linked Stocks
While retail is a major back-to-school theme, there’s another intriguing opportunity developing in the market: Bitcoin-related stocks.
Take MicroStrategy (SYM: MSTR), for example. Recently trading around $358.13, the stock is oversold at technical support dating back to April. Momentum indicators such as RSI, MACD, and Williams’ %R also suggest the stock is deeply oversold. Historically, these conditions have led to sharp rebounds.
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In April, MSTR rallied after similar oversold readings.
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It bounced again in late February.
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And last September, the stock also turned higher from nearly identical conditions.
MicroStrategy’s fundamentals are strong, too. The company recently purchased another $51.4 million worth of Bitcoin, bringing its total holdings to 629,378 BTC.
Its Q2 earnings also impressed:
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EPS of $32.60 crushed estimates by $32.67.
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Revenue of $114.49 million beat expectations by nearly $2 million.
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Operating income surged to $14 billion.
CFO Andrew Kang highlighted that MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin yield has already hit 25% year-to-date, exceeding its full-year target ahead of schedule. Management expects FY2025 EPS of $80 per share based on a Bitcoin outlook of $150,000 by year-end.
For investors seeking exposure beyond traditional retail stocks, MSTR represents a compelling side play.
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