Tuesday, July 29, 2025

Traders Are Literally Falling Asleep

Trade of the Day Wake-Up Watchlist

"When nobody's paying attention because it feels too easy. That's when individual names can absolutely rip your face off."

Nate Bear, Lead Technical Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance

Nate Bear

Hey Gang,

You know what kills me about yesterday's action?

S&P barely budges, Dow flat as roadkill, and everyone's talking about how "little changed" the market is after this EU trade deal. Volatility hitting February lows.

Traders are literally falling asleep.

And I'm sitting here looking at META thinking - this is exactly when the explosive moves happen.

When everyone's comfortable.

When complacency sets in. When the market's "pushing to new highs" but nobody's paying attention because it feels too easy.

That's when individual names can absolutely rip your face off.

Why META Has My Full Attention

Look, I'm not touching anything before earnings tomorrow. But META's showing me everything I want to see for a post-earnings explosion setup.

Fresh daily squeeze with squeezes firing on the 195-minute, 60-minute, AND 30-minute timeframes. This isn't random technical noise - when you see squeezes across multiple timeframes like this, it means institutional money is systematically accumulating while retail's not paying attention.

The 195-minute squeeze especially tells me the bigger players are positioning for something.

That timeframe captures the smart money that doesn't show up on retail-focused charts.

Stacked EMAs on both daily and weekly charts. This matters because it shows the trend isn't just intact - it's accelerating. Each moving average is acting as support, creating this escalator effect where any pullback gets bought immediately.

And we're only about 30 points from those 52-week highs at $747.90. In a stock trading around $715, that's basically nothing. The path of least resistance is straight up.

Market's implying a 6.2% move on earnings.

But when you have this kind of technical momentum building with institutional accumulation, those implied moves usually underestimate the actual violence.

 

The Setup That Actually Works

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Most traders are going to play META into earnings tomorrow.

Buy some calls, hope for the best, get their heads ripped off by IV crush even if they're right about direction.

That's not how you make money in this game.

I'm waiting for AFTER the earnings release.

If META breaks significantly higher than that 6.2% implied move - I'm talking +10%, something that shows real conviction - then you've got a stock with proven momentum, reduced IV, and clear technical breakout potential toward those highs.

The beauty of waiting is you get confirmation that the setup is real before you risk capital.

Plus, post-earnings moves with this kind of technical backing tend to run for days, not hours.

Why This Market Environment Is Perfect

This setup works in this "boring" market everyone's complaining about because individual explosions get amplified when everything else is dead.

Everyone's focused on the Fed meeting Wednesday, GDP numbers, inflation data Thursday, jobs report Friday. The whole week is packed with macro noise that'll keep most traders paralyzed.

But if META delivers a number that crushes expectations and triggers these squeeze setups?

All that macro noise becomes background static while the stock runs toward $750. The lack of market volatility actually makes individual breakouts more violent because there's less competition for attention.

The Post-Earnings Game Plan

What I'm watching for tomorrow night:

If META moves beyond that 6.2% threshold with conviction, I'm looking at short-dated options for the momentum continuation.

Not before. Not during. After.

Because that's when you know the setup is real. When the earnings catalyst confirms what the technicals were already telling you.

The stacked EMAs give me confidence this isn't just a one-day pop. The multiple timeframe squeezes tell me there's systematic positioning that'll fuel continuation moves.

And in a market where everyone's comfortable and volatility is at February lows? That's exactly when you get the moves that create real wealth.

Why Most Will Miss This

Most people right now are either playing it safe because "volatility is too low" or chasing whatever moved yesterday.

They're not watching for post-earnings confirmation plays. They're not looking at institutional accumulation signals. They're definitely not positioning for continuation moves after catalyst events.

Sometimes you gotta lean INTO the chaos instead of running from it. And tomorrow night, if META delivers, we might get our chance to do exactly that.

Most traders will be crying into their coffee Thursday morning wondering how they missed it. Me? I'll be counting.

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