Nate Silver's latest election forecast gives former President Trump a slight edge over Vice President Harris in the upcoming Electoral College, despite Harris leading by 3.8 points in national polls. Silver attributes this to a potential convention bounce for Harris, which could temporarily inflate her numbers. He suggests that her real test will be maintaining this lead beyond the bounce period. In key battleground states, the race remains very close, with polls showing only a narrow lead for Harris, indicating a highly competitive race.
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