Friday, August 1, 2025

Why the Market Has Gotten Frothy Lately

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Why the Market Has Gotten Frothy Lately

Alexander Green, Chief Investment Strategist, The Oxford Club

Alexander Green

In a private Clubroom call on Wednesday, I made the case that the market is looking more than a little frothy and Oxford Club Members should make their portfolios more conservative.

How is the market looking frothy? Let me count the ways...

  1. Stocks have outperformed bonds by more than 5% annually over the past 10-year period. Aware of this recent history, investors - and especially newbies - are beginning to feel this will always be the case.
  2. The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 trade for 30 times projected earnings for the next 12 months. That is not only roughly twice the historical average. It's above the 25 times that the top 10 fetched at the peak of the dot-com bubble.
  3. Investors justify this valuation by arguing "this time it's different," another sign of a market top. Twenty-five years ago, punters insisted that "the internet changes everything." Today they insist that "AI changes everything." Both claims are true. But that doesn't justify throwing caution to the wind or paying nosebleed prices.
  4. The central bank is dovish. Investors are routinely told "don't fight the Fed." Lower interest rates are good for businesses and consumers. Jerome Powell and company cut interest rates three times last year and the market predicts two more rate cuts this year. An accommodative Fed adds to bullish sentiment.
  5. There has been a surge in high-risk trading activity. Too many investors are chasing tiny companies without even sales, much less earnings. And it's not just mom and pop. Even institutions are trading meme stocks, meme coins, and all sorts of high-risk crypto (a redundancy if there ever was one).

This last point may be the strongest indicator that we are near a short-term top.

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Let me quote from a recent Wall Street Journal article entitled "The Hottest Business Strategy This Summer is Trading Crypto":

Companies are raising tens of billions of dollars, not to invest in their businesses or hire employees, but to purchase bitcoin and more obscure cryptocurrencies. A Japanese hotel operator, a French semiconductor manufacturer, a Florida toy maker, a nail-salon chain, an electric-bike maker -they're all plowing cash into tokens, helping to send all kinds of digital currencies to record levels. News that a new company plans to buy crypto is enough to send its shares flying - spurring others to consider joining the frenzy.

Since June 1, 98 companies have announced plans to raise over $43 billion to buy bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, according to Architect Partners, a crypto advisory firm. Nearly $86 billion has been raised for this purpose since the start of the year. That's more than double the amount of money raised in initial public offerings in the U.S. in 2025, according to Dealogic...

Many of these companies are worth much more than the cryptocurrencies they hold, as if investors are willing to pay $2 for a $1 bill.

That hasn't stopped big-name bankers, investors and others from jumping in. Mutual-fund giant Capital Group, hedge fund D1 Capital Partners, and investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald are among those backing recent efforts by companies to raise huge sums to purchase cryptocurrencies.

Let me pause to state the obvious here... Folks, this is not normal.

Many of these otherwise sober individuals are going to wake up in the not-too-distant future and say, "What the heck was I thinking?"

Fear of missing out - FOMO - can afflict professional money managers as well as retail investors.

And perhaps even more acutely. When managers hear their clients repeatedly say, "Why don't you own Super-Hot, Inc. and Flaming Coin? They're going to the Moon!" the pressure builds to buy these things before clients pull their assets away.

Indeed, crypto is the ideal investment for hedge fund managers.

Consider... hedge funds are tasked with earning large returns that are uncorrelated with the broad market.

(Let's set aside for a moment that everything from Bitcoin to Dogecoin is highly correlated with the Nasdaq.)

Hedge fund managers have a green light to get in. And let's not forget that they charge "2 and 20." (That's a 2% annual management fee and 20% of the profits.) Highway robbery in most cases, but some people prefer to learn the hard way.

If crypto screams higher, the hedge fund manager looks like a hero and gets paid like one.

And if crypto collapses? Well, he made millions during the upswing. And the millions he loses in the bear market are his clients' assets not his own.

Like I said, it's the ideal investment for hedge fund managers. Until the music stops, anyway.

However, it's not just crypto. Growth stocks, even those without earnings - especially those without earnings - are soaring too.

Add it all up - strong equity outperformance, sky-high valuations, easy money, euphoric sentiment, and FOMO - and you have a strong case that stocks have gotten ahead of themselves.

So how should you make your portfolio more conservative - by moving to cash?

Absolutely not. I'll explain why - as well as what you should do - in Monday's column.

Good investing,

Alex

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