Monday, July 14, 2025

The 15% Rule Is About to Kick In

Total Wealth

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Monday Takeaways: Historic Pattern Suggests 15% More Gains Ahead

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Shah Gilani

Shah Gilani
Chief Investment Strategist

Here's a fascinating piece of history...

When the S&P 500 gains 20% or more in two months (this has happened 10 times), markets averaged another 15% gain the following year.

And the S&P has just done it again.

With five record highs in just nine trading days, this pattern could be playing out once more.

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The setup looks compelling...

  • Nvidia hits historic $4 trillion market cap
  • VIX down to 15-16 range
  • ETF flows into U.S. equities "stellar"
  • Risk parity funds rotating from bonds to stocks.

But we're entering a critical phase...

  • Banks start reporting earnings this week
  • We're "priced for perfection" at current levels
  • Broadening out beyond big tech still hasn't happened.

I'll explain why I'm staying long despite valuation concerns, how to position for earnings season, and what could derail this historic pattern.

Click here or on the image below for your Monday Takeaways.

Cheers,

Shah

Video - Monday Takeaways
 
WATCH THE VIDEO
(WITH TRANSCRIPT)

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