| | | | | By Jeff Brown, Editor, The Bleeding Edge | | |
While we're still a few years away from having a breakthrough of a universal fault-tolerant quantum computer, it's very clear that we are now on an accelerated path. | | The turning point came in December. Alphabet's Google Quantum AI division announced its breakthrough in quantum computing – its latest Willow quantum semiconductor and Google DeepMind's new quantum error correction technology. | | | | In that issue, I wrote… | | | Using Google's Random Circuit Sampling (RCS) benchmark, Willow can perform a computation in under five minutes that would take the world's current fastest supercomputer – Frontier – 10 septillion years (1025 years) to accomplish. That's: | | 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years. | | The above number exceeds the age of the universe. To be clear, that is not a "reasonable" time frame… hence, clearly, quantum supremacy. | | Willow is designed with 105 quantum bits (qubits) as compared to Sycamore's 53 qubits. The difference might not seem like much, but it is. With each additional qubit added to a quantum computing system, the computational power grows exponentially. | | | | The implications of this latest generation of technology are profound. | | Not only was the Google Quantum AI team able to demonstrate incomprehensible raw computational power in a single quantum computer, but it was also able to use error correction technology that reduced the error rate as the number of qubits increased. | | In the past, the reality was exactly the opposite. | | Hence, the accelerated path toward the holy grail of quantum computing – a universal fault-tolerant quantum computer. | | And given the interconnectedness of the scientific and engineering communities and the access and availability of bleeding-edge research, when advancements like this are made, we can almost always be sure that there is at least one party close behind. | | In this case, there are two. | | | | | | President Trump’s “Crypto Czar” says we’re entering the Golden Age of Crypto, but it may not feel like it yet. With Bitcoin and other tokens on a rollercoaster ride, it’s easy to think the bull market may be over… But Jeff disagrees. He says we’re on the verge of another pivotal moment for the crypto markets… And those who understand how to play it could reap the rewards and build generational wealth over the next few years. He reveals everything in this special presentation… Watch the Video Here. | | | | Neck-and-Neck in the Quantum Race | | Prior to the Google Quantum AI announcement about Willow, Rigetti Computing (RGTI) had been leading the race in superconducting quantum computer technology with its 84-qubit Ankaa-3 quantum computing system. | | | | Rigetti's Ankaa-3 | Source: Rigetti | | It's not unusual to see leading technology companies leapfrog each other from time to time, and Google's upgrade to its quantum computing system was long overdue. And I doubt its leading position will last. | | Rigetti is expected to deliver its 108-qubit quantum computing system by the fourth quarter of this year, which would overtake Google's Willow. | | But readers of The Bleeding Edge will know well that it's not just about the qubits. It's the fidelity of the system and the error correction technology that enables quantum computers to be immensely useful. That's what we'll be keeping a sharp eye out for. | | And we'll also be keeping a close eye out for developments across the Pacific Ocean in China where a major announcement was made earlier this month. | | Shown below is China's Zuchongzhi-3 quantum computing system developed by a team at the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) which is part of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. | | | | Zuchongzhi-3 | Source: University of Science and Technology of China | | Like Rigetti and Alphabet's (GOOGL) quantum computing approach, Zuchongzhi-3 is also a superconducting quantum computer. Its "brain" is also based on semiconductor technology that makes its superconducting quantum computer inherently scalable. | | | | Illustration of Zuchongzhi-3 Quantum Processor | Source: University of Science and Technology of China | | Like Google's Willow, Zuchongzhi-3 has 105 qubits. | | The research published by the USTC claimed that the Zuchongzhi-3 can perform computations 1015 times faster than El Capitan, the most powerful classical supercomputer in the world. The research – and the media headlines – also claimed that Zuchongzhi-3 is a million times faster than Google's quantum computer. | | As usual, the details matter. | | High Stakes | | While Zuchongzhi-3 is definitely impressive, it was measuring its performance advantage over Google based on Google's old Sycamore quantum computing chips of 67- and 70-qubit quantum computers. In other words, it was an apples-to-oranges comparison. | | What is more relevant is evaluating the Zuchongzhi-3 performance versus Google's Willow, which is what is shown below. | | | | Willow vs. Zuchongzhi-3 | Source: GQI | | Zuchongzhi-3 is impressive as it performs generally on par with Willow. Where Willow has a clear advantage is in fidelity. The differences may not seem like much, but even tenths of a percent can make a major difference in quantum computing performance. | | But the significance of China's latest breakthrough in quantum computing isn't just about gaining a technological edge to beat Western companies. Quantum computing is strategic to China's national interests. | | China has long employed a "harvest now, decrypt later" strategy regarding the theft of information from foreign governments or corporations. | | A very recent example is the federal grand jury indictment this February of Linwei Ding with "seven counts of economic espionage and seven counts of theft of trade secrets." | | Ding gained employment with Google in 2019. Between May 2022 and May 2023, he stole more than 1,000 confidential files containing trade secrets related to both the hardware and software concerning Google's artificial intelligence and machine learning technology. | | The most ironic part about the crimes is that Ding uploaded all the files to his personal Google Cloud account. He actually used Google's own technology platform to steal invaluable information. | | Ding was secretly affiliated with two People's Republic of China-based companies, and his actions were clearly meant to benefit the People's Republic of China (PRC). Ding now faces up to 10 years in prison for each trade secret count and 15 years in prison for each count of economic espionage. | | But the reality is that no amount of prison time could ever make up for the damage and the loss to both Google and the U.S., for that matter. The PRC now has possession of technology that cost Google tens of billions to develop. It cost the country nothing more than a single agent to get it. | | Huawei – now one of the largest and most successful technology companies in the world and also one of the most critical components of China's international data surveillance network – was literally built upon stolen technology from Cisco. | | That's why what's happening in quantum computing is so important now. | | China is most likely sitting on more than $1 trillion worth of encrypted files containing untold political, economic, and trade secrets. And a powerful quantum computer is all it needs to crack the encryption. | | | Quantum Investment on the Rise | | If the quantum computing industry ever needed a catalyst, this is it. | | Not only does the industry need to race ahead and lead with quantum computing, but it also needs to accelerate the implementation of post-quantum encryption technology that meets the post-quantum encryption standards that have been selected by the National Institutes of Science and Technology (NIST). | | Just two days ago, NIST selected a new algorithm, HQC, which has been selected as a backup to the main algorithm that was selected for general post-quantum encryption. In other words, if a weakness is discovered, NIST has a backup plan. | | As a result, investment in quantum computing is about to increase. If not out of economic incentives, it will happen as a matter of sheer necessity. | | Jeff | | P.S. Bleeding Edge readers, we'd love to hear from you! | | Here at Brownstone Research, we're always looking for ways to enhance your reading experience with all of our research. | | So, we're taking a moment to survey readers on what sort of regular, daily free research they'd most like to see alongside their usual Bleeding Edge insights and updates. | | Maybe you're keen to hear more about what's happening in crypto on the day-to-day… or perhaps you'd rather get more broad morning market updates. | | | | | | | | | This is not the kind of company you want holding your biometric data… | | | | | | This last week has been exciting as three missions from three different private companies have made their way to... | | | | | | A Cambrian explosion of innovation is happening right now in one of the most hated arenas of investing. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | To ensure our emails continue reaching your inbox, please add our email address to your address book. 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